TRUMP Memecoin Faces $328M Token Unlock on April 18 — Will the Price Crash Below $7?

The Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin is approaching a high-stakes moment. On Friday, April 18, the project will unlock 40 million tokens—equivalent to $328 million and 20% of its circulating supply—which could lead to significant market volatility.

As the crypto world braces for this supply surge, concerns are mounting that TRUMP may face increased selling pressure, especially in light of its recent 30% monthly price decline. Traders and analysts alike are watching closely to see whether this massive unlock could catalyze a deeper downturn.

What Makes the April 18 TRUMP Token Unlock So Risky?

Token unlock events are critical in crypto projects because they introduce previously locked or vested tokens into the market. In TRUMP’s case, the circulating supply is still relatively small—so releasing 40 million new tokens is bound to shake things up.

With a market cap of $1.62 billion, this unlock is one of the largest memecoin supply events in April. Unless demand picks up substantially, the new tokens could flood the market, leading to an extended correction and pushing TRUMP’s price below key support levels.

Adding to concerns is the token’s 90% drawdown from its all-time high. If bulls cannot absorb the incoming supply, TRUMP could face an even deeper plunge.

On-Chain Metrics Show Waning Interest

A look at the on-chain data paints a grim picture. According to Dune Analytics, the number of unique TRUMP holders has dropped from 817,621 in January to 637,235 currently.

Even more telling: only 13,000 holders have wallets containing more than $1,000 worth of TRUMP. These figures suggest fading retail enthusiasm, which doesn’t bode well ahead of the unlock.

Interestingly, social dominance—a metric from Santiment that measures how much social media chatter is focused on a coin—has risen to 0.19%. But in the context of a declining price, this rise signals a bearish divergence, as hype may be outpacing actual market interest.

Technical Analysis: Bears Still in Control

From a technical standpoint, TRUMP is currently trading near $8.06, just under the descending triangle’s upper trendline on the daily chart. A break above this resistance is necessary for any bullish reversal, but so far, that breakout hasn’t occurred.

Two key indicators also highlight bearish momentum:

• Awesome Oscillator (AO): Still in the red, confirming continued downside risk.
• Bull Bear Power (BBP): Below zero, indicating bears maintain market control.

If these conditions persist, TRUMP could dip below $7 in the coming days—especially if the unlock overwhelms existing demand.

Can TRUMP Bulls Flip the Script?

There is still a chance for a bullish breakout—if TRUMP can close above the triangle resistance. In that scenario, technical targets point toward $17.05, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.

But for now, the path of least resistance appears downward, especially as bearish signals align ahead of the $328 million supply event.

The upcoming token unlock on April 18 could be a defining moment for the TRUMP memecoin. With weak technical support and fading on-chain metrics, traders should stay cautious. The next few days may reveal whether TRUMP can withstand the pressure—or spiral into a deeper correction.