Dogecoin Stalls as Price Stagnation Threatens Key Support Levels, Warns Analyst

The Dogecoin price has flatlined for over six weeks, and analysts are growing concerned that a major breakdown may be on the horizon if critical support isn’t maintained.

Veteran market technician Kevin, known for his precision charting on X (formerly Twitter), described DOGE’s recent price action as “literally doing nothing.” In his latest broadcast, he noted that Dogecoin’s last significant move was a sharp drop more than 40 days ago, and since then, price has remained locked in a narrow range between $0.138 and $0.156.

That consolidation zone is growing increasingly fragile.

DOGE Stuck in No-Man’s-Land: Key Levels in Focus

Kevin has repeatedly referred to $0.138 as his ‘line in the sand’, representing a key Fibonacci retracement (macro 0.382) level. A weekly close below this zone, he argues, would confirm that Dogecoin’s late 2023 bullish momentum has fully unraveled.

“If Dogecoin breaks $0.138 on weekly closes, then it’s probably over,” he warned.

On the upside, $0.156 remains the resistance cap, a level DOGE has struggled to reclaim decisively. The current range has made price action directionless, squeezing risk/reward potential to a tight margin.

Momentum Signals Provide No Relief

DOGE’s 3-day MACD is also failing to deliver clarity. While some on social media have declared a bullish crossover, Kevin pushed back on that interpretation, explaining that a true MACD cross requires momentum expansion, not just a cosmetic line cross.

“Technically, yes, by definition it’s a cross,” he explained, “but it’s really not a cross […] You have to have expansion of the moving averages.”

Without that expansion, he said, the small uptick on the histogram may simply “roll over,” failing to generate any sustainable trend reversal.

Bitcoin as the Macro Compass

Kevin also warned that the entire crypto market remains in a macro correction, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s 3-day MACD turning bearish in January. According to his historical analysis, these macro pullbacks last between 114 and 174 days, regardless of market conditions or news cycles.

That timeline implies we may still be midway through the correction phase, leaving DOGE vulnerable to downside pressure, especially if Bitcoin breaks below the $70,000 level.

“If Bitcoin breaks into the $60,000s, you’ll get a big bounce, everything will look rosy, but the odds of a new high soon are very low,” Kevin explained. “Same with Dogecoin. Even if DOGE bounces off $0.10 to $0.25 or $0.26, it could just be the last hurrah.”

Is Dogecoin Running Out of Time?

At the time of writing, Dogecoin trades at $0.1621, slightly above the congestion zone Kevin identified. However, the lack of momentum, tightening range, and structural pressure from the broader market make this a crucial moment for the memecoin.

Traders should watch for:

• A weekly close above $0.156 to regain bullish footing
• A drop below $0.138 as a breakdown confirmation
• Momentum validation on the 3-day MACD

Until then, Dogecoin remains directionless — or in Kevin’s words, “We’ve done nothing… there’s not much to talk about.”