By Km Fazi 
Dogecoin has cooled off sharply after reaching monthly highs, shedding more than 20% in just a few days. The pullback dragged DOGE from the $0.15 zone down to a local low just below $0.12 — a level that bulls are now trying to defend. However, broader market conditions and current trade flow suggest that downside pressure may not be finished, leaving room for another shakeout before any meaningful recovery attempt.
If that flush plays out, DOGE could attempt a bounce. The real question, however, is whether buyers can convert that rebound into a sustained move toward the psychologically important $0.20 level.
DOGE Price Action: Falling Channel Signals Ongoing Bearish Control
The Dogecoin price is currently moving within a clean descending channel, marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows. Each attempt to rally toward the upper boundary of this channel has been met with strong selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish structure.
Repeated rejections between $0.15 and $0.153 confirm that this former support zone has flipped into resistance. As long as sellers continue to defend this range, the broader trend remains bearish, making a direct move toward $0.20 increasingly unlikely in the short term.
Key Support at $0.12 Weakening With Each Test
The chart highlights a tight consolidation base around $0.12, where price has repeatedly stabilized. This zone is acting as a temporary demand pocket within a broader downtrend. However, there is a critical caveat: when price revisits the same support level multiple times within a falling channel, that support typically weakens.
While bulls are defending $0.12, they have not been able to push the price into a meaningful recovery. A daily close below this level could open the door to $0.115 initially, followed by $0.11, and potentially a deeper extension toward the $0.10 psychological level.
Can Dogecoin Price Trigger a Strong Recovery?
Recent recovery attempts have been distinct but shallow, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers. If DOGE bounces but fails to reclaim the $0.13–$0.14 range, another rejection could trap price below $0.15. This would signal a classic bear market bounce rather than a true trend reversal.
Momentum indicators also reflect weakening bullish strength. On-Balance Volume (OBV) continues to trend lower, hinting at distribution or, at minimum, declining sustained demand. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains slightly positive, showing some buying interest, but not enough to shift the overall structure.
For DOGE to realistically target $0.20, the price must first hold $0.12 and begin forming higher lows — a structural shift that would indicate buyers are regaining control.
Downside Risk Remains If DOGE Fails to Reclaim $0.15
If Dogecoin fails to reclaim and hold above $0.15, any rally is likely to form a lower high — a pattern that often precedes another leg down toward support. In that scenario, traders should prepare for renewed downside volatility rather than a sustained bullish breakout.